Quote:ONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 221503Z - 221700Z

THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS MAY INCREASE THROUGH MID DAY. THE NEED
FOR A WW IS UNCERTAIN...AS THE LONGEVITY OF THIS POTENTIAL THREAT IS
STILL IN QUESTION...BUT TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED.

STRONGER MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED
WITH SUPPORTING SHORT WAVE IMPULSE APPEARS LIKELY TO LIFT AWAY FROM
THE RED RIVER VALLEY...INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. BUT LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION IN ITS WAKE
MAY MAINTAIN VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...PERHAPS ADJACENT NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS... THROUGH
AT LEAST THE 18-19Z TIME FRAME. THIS MAY COINCIDE WITH WEAK TO
MODERATE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION...IN RESPONSE TO SURFACE
HEATING AND NORTHWARD ADVECTION OF LOWER/MID SURFACE DEW
POINTS...PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES AND
SUBSIDENCE. NEAR AND BENEATH 50+ KT SOUTHWESTERLY 500 MB FLOW...AND
A SLOWLY STRENGTHENING 30-50 KT SOUTHERLY 850 MB JET AXIS...STRONG
DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND SIZABLE CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS...WITH
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO.